Any forex trader must apply a certain method in order to predict the future price of a certain currency, that's a given fact. The entire concept of speculative forex trading is based upon future fluctuations in currency prices. You make profit by buying a certain currency in one price and selling by another.
Therefore, the most important thing for any trader, novice or expert, is to have some sort of prediction to future price changes. Thus came to life several different methods of market analysis, each tries to incorporate different methods and data in order to give some sort of prediction to the future price of various currencies.
The first method we will review in this series of articles is Technical Analysis. Technical analysis is based on the concept that it is possible to predict future prices using only market generated data. All the data and history regarding a price is represented in various charts and imply assorted methodologies. Every trader, no matter what trading style he uses, uses this method at some point. At the very least, these charts help to determine what the ideal buy or sell position is, at any given time. It helps to give a broader look on he trends and patterns in the market.
Many critics accuse the Technicians of ignoring the fundamentals of the market, but they claim in return that all of the market's fundamentals are already represented in the charts. In their opinion any fundamental market rule is already enveloped in the current price and more importantly in the price's history.
In a country or territory, the GDP or Gross Domestic Product is the market value of all the goods and services produce by labor and property in that country/region in one year and it is the monetary value of a region’s/country’s goods and services in a span of a particular period of time, such as a year. Usually, increase in GDP also equates to increase in standard of living but not necessarily in increase of purchasing power of its people, if the reason for growth in GDP is increase or high inflation or population growth. Stable increase of Gross Domestic Product is a good example of stability and reliability of the region economy. Positive GDP is determined by growth of labor force and the capital stock, which is in pace with the technological advancement. On the other hand a negative GDP implies that the country has a higher unemployment and lower standard of living of its people. Gross Domestic Product is usually a big factor in assessing the country’s economy, is used by investors, financial institution and other institution.
There are 3 approaches in calculating Gross Domestic Product GDP. Expenditure approach- GDP is the sum of the consumption and investment plus the country’s spending plus the output in export(less the imports).
Product approach or the market value of the goods and services produced in a year.
Income approach or the total of all the income collected by all the producers in a year: This equates to the compensation of employees (wages, salaries including the contribution to social security) plus the profits (gross operating surplus) plus the Gross mixed income (small business).
These 3 are all equivalent, each having the same result. World top 10 –Gross Domestic Product 2003-2004
1. U.S.A- with a 10,082 billion US dollar Composition by sector on GDP of USA Agriculture: 0.9% industry: 20.5% services: 78.5%
2. China- with a 6,000 billion US dollar Composition by sector on GDP of China Agriculture: 11.3% industry: 48.6% services: 40.1%
3. Japan- with a 3,550 billion US dollar Composition by sector on GDP of Japan Agriculture: 1.4% industry: 26.5% services: 72%
4. India- with a 2,660 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of India Agriculture: 17.6% industry: 29.4% services: 52.9%
5. Germany- with a 2,184 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of Germany Agriculture: 0.8% industry: 29% services: 70.1%
6. France- with a 1,540 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of France Agriculture: 2.2% industry: 21% services: 76.7%
7. United kingdom- with a 1,520 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of United Kingdom Agriculture: 0.9% industry: 23.4% services: 75.7%
8. Italy- with a 1,438 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of Italy Agriculture: 1.9% industry: 28.9% services: 69.2%
9. Brazil- with a 1,340 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of Brazil Agriculture: 5.5% industry: 28.7% services: 65.8%
10. Russia- with a 1,270 billion dollars Composition by sector on GDP of Russia Agriculture: 4.7% industry: 39.1% services: 56.2%
YOU may have probably heard people saying that there is a lot of money to be made in the currency market or in the Forex trade but wondered how that was really possible. The fact of the matter is that if you hear someone say that this is a great place to make easy money then you are speaking to the wrong person because making money at Forex is a risky venture that not only requires luck but a proper grasp of how the market moves. It’s safe to say that you can easily make a million dollars today and loose ten million tomorrow.
If you are looking to try your hand at trading currencies I would suggest that you start by getting yourself a demo account from any one of the many online forex trading websites. A demo account with come preloaded with some ‘funny money’ that you can use to execute real time trades to learn if the decisions you are making are profitable. Over time as you do this you will begin to get a feel of how the market moves as well as whether or not you are ready to put in some real money.
